"Only in 1993 were the New Jersey and Virginia races a precursor of major change.
In 1997 and 2001 the parties that lost the two governorships went on to make gains in the following year's midterm elections. The only pattern we can see here is that in every election for the past 20 years, the president's party has lost both the New Jersey and Virginia governorships.
At the risk of being frightfully boring, our prediction is that the 2006 election, like the 2005 election, is likely to be a reaffirmation of the status quo. As we've argued, in the Senate the trend has been toward alignment with a state's presidential preferences in 2000 and 2004--but this trend is self-limiting.
In 2002 Democrats made big gains in Democratic states and Republicans made smaller gains in Republican ones, which means both parties' targets of opportunity are limited this time around."
As usual, the highlight of his post is found in the headline: "Yes, Santa Claus, there is a Virginia." - Brilliant!